Yeah, the Market’s a Mess - But Your Plan Shouldn’t Be

With markets bouncing around and headlines in full panic mode, it’s no surprise some people eyeing retirement are second-guessing their timing. Totally normal.

What you’re bumping into is called "sequence of return risk" - the risk of retiring (or needing to start pulling money) right when the market decides to act up. But should soon-to-be retirees be worried? Kind of... but not really.

First, if you’ve worked with a good advisor, this kind of thing should already be baked into your plan. The timing, the withdrawals, the market dips - it’s all part of what gets modeled before you ever pull the retirement trigger.

Second, a lot of retirement plan dollars these days are invested in target date funds. Cerulli Associates expects that by 2027, 66% of all retirement plan contributions will flow into target date funds [1].

These funds automatically adjust your investments based on your age - more aggressive when you're younger, more conservative as you near retirement.

So why does this matter?

Because despite the S&P 500 (SPY) being down around -5.6% year-to-date [2], many 2025 target date funds are actually up. The Fidelity Freedom 2025 Fund (FFTWX) is up 1.39% [3], Vanguard’s 2025 Target Retirement Fund (VTTVX) is up 0.59% [4], and Schwab’s 2025 Target Fund (SWHRX) is up 0.63% [5].

If you’re just going off the morning or evening news, you’d think everything’s on fire. But real-life investment results - especially in well-structured portfolios - tell a different story.

There’s a lot of noise out there. But the right planning, the right investments, and the right context can keep you focused when the headlines don’t.

Jose Alvarez

Founding Advisor

Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies

I do not own any of the investments discussed in this article. Data is accurate as of the time of the writing.

[1] Franck, Thomas. “Target-Date Funds, the Most Popular 401(k) Plan Investment, Don’t Work for Everyone.” NBC Chicago, March 11, 2024. https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/business/money-report/target-date-funds-the-most-popular-401k-plan-investment-dont-work-for-everyone/3639009/.

[2] "SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)." Yahoo Finance. Accessed March 31, 2025. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/.

[3] "Fidelity Freedom 2025 Fund (FFTWX)." Yahoo Finance. Accessed March 31, 2025. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FFTWX/.

[4] "Vanguard Target Retirement 2025 Fund (VTTVX)." Yahoo Finance. Accessed March 31, 2025. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTTVX/.

[5] "Schwab Target 2025 Fund (SWHRX)." Yahoo Finance. Accessed March 31, 2025. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SWHRX/.

The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. The information provided is for informational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.